### Introduction

The idea of plotting confidence intervals on data, which is discussed in a number of posts elsewhere on this blog, should be straightforward. Everything we observe is uncertain, but some things are more certain than others! Instead of marking an observation as a point, its better to express it as a ‘cloud’, an interval representing a range of probabilities.

But the standard method for calculating intervals that most people are taught is **wrong**.

The reasons *why* are dealt with in detail in (Wallis 2013). In preparing this paper for publication, however, I came up with a new demonstration, using real data, as to why this is the case.

Continue reading “Why ‘Wald’ is Wrong: once more on confidence intervals”